Arizona and Michigan: defining GOP primaries

The Aurelia Fierros' Report │ Column

Just hours before primaries in Arizona and Michigan, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum come into view as the two Republican contenders vying for leadership in what may well be the most important phase of the internal processes thus far, which could lead the GOP presidential nomination into a two person race.

On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls in both states to make their pick from the last four candidates of the Republican pack – including Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul; in a preamble to a series of critical contests leading to Super Tuesday, which will consist of three caucuses and seven primaries in 10 states, on March 6.

The latest polls put Romney and Santorum in a virtual tie in both Arizona and Michigan, providing a slight advantage that favors Romney as Tuesday's primary comes near.  

But Romney is not showing any worries about Arizona, where Gov. Jan Brewer, known for her hard line on immigration policy and for signing into law the controversial SB1070, announced her endorsement on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday. Other prominent Republican figures backing the former Massachusetts governor include New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Arizona Sen. John McCain. 

Romney is instead, focusing on Michigan, where he is running an aggressive TV ad campaign, and where Santorum has gained some terrain. The outcome in Michigan is particularly important as it is expected to significantly impact the campaign. If Romney loses Michigan it will be a huge blow for him since he was born and raised there. As those elements imply a great political value, a potential loss would be more damaging to him than to Santorum, and would be also seen as Romney's inability to attract conservative support in the primaries, or against President Barack Obama in the general election.

Precisely, an Associated Press-Gfk poll released Wednesday found that Obama would potentially defeat any of the “final four” Republican hopefuls and also that the country is showing more optimism about the economy, which has been a main topic in the race.

That explains the GOP’s discourse strategy, which is, has been, and will continue to be based on attacking the Obama administrations’ most vulnerable issues: spending, national debt, lingering levels of unemployment and a sluggish economy. 

In national security and foreign policy, on health care or on immigration, whoever is elected as the Republican presidential candidate, will pledge to his constituents not bowing to Saudi kings, skipping apology tours, securing the southern border and of course, challenging Obamacare. In fact, in 2010, that narrative carried the GOP to electoral victory. Through most of 2011, their political discourse kept such tone, which by the way, was also a recurring place during Wednesday’s night debate.

Although, the Arizona stage – possibly the last faceoff of the season- didn’t seem to help Republican candidates after all. It could have been the most important dissertation platform of the entire cycle, the 20th debate. But it wasn’t.

Social media was a good barometer to assess what the Average Joe wanted to hear on that broadcast. Users were amazed that the ‘hot’ topics of economy, job creation were neglected throughout the showdown. It might have to do with the debate’s format design by the network’s production; but still, candidates were in an open stage to take control and make their case, but failed to do so.

Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, and Paul, engaged for nearly two hours in a heated and ineffective debate that resulted in the former Pennsylvania senator losing his recently gained ‘momentum,’ as he spent a considerable portion of his on-air time defending his voting record in the Senate and also his use of earmarks.

The former Massachusetts governor defended the so called Romneycare and displayed a very cynical, yet brilliant trick, turning the table around and blaming Santorum for Obamacare. Santorum took the bait and then went into a long explanation. Tactical error.  Not a good way to win undecided conservative Republican voters, which supposed to be the objective.

A specific characteristic of this particular debate was also the absence of a topic important to the region. Strange, as those touring and strategizing in presidential campaigns, know how essential it is to address issues relevant to the place they visit during the campaign trail -despite the host’s prepared questions. 

Arizona, a border state where the issue of illegal immigration is critical to many voters, where30 percent of the electorate is Latino, and where a vast majority of them became highly involved in the issue after the passage of SB 1070, saw the topic reduced to border enforcement and to a threat to veto the DREAM Act. 

Curiously, the most recent TIME magazine’s cover story features the importance of the Latino vote. The issue released a few days ago, ran its headline in Spanish: “Yo decido (I decide,)” followed by a secondary heading that reads: “Why Latinos will pick the next President.”

Dismissing this vital component, the night was consumed between the candidates’ attacks that little had to do with letting people know what they would do for the U.S., in the event any of them wins the nomination and eventually, the presidency. The hopefuls were tough on immigration, although Gingrich was perhaps the least extreme on the topic.

On the eve of the Michigan and Arizona primaries the candidates’ rhetoric continues to be increasingly personal and vitriolic and if none of them obtains a significant advantage and number of delegates to lead the pack, the fear of Republicans is that they would need to wait until August to hold a brokered convention. Meanwhile, there will be 13 primaries and caucuses between Tuesday, and March 6, the so called Super Tuesday. In such period of time, anything can happen. 

Arizona y Michigan: pasaporte hacia el Súper Martes

The Aurelia Fierros' Report │ Columna

Mitt Romney y Rick Santorum son los dos contendientes republicanos que ahora se disputan el liderazgo para llegar como el ‘candidato fuerte’ hacia el llamado Súper Martes -que consistirá en tres asambleas partidistas [caucus] y siete elecciones primarias [primaries] en 10 estados, el próximo 6 de marzo-. Para ello, tendrían que apuntarse victorias sólidas en los dos estados que celebrarán primarias antes de esa fecha: Arizona y Michigan. Ambas, se celebrarán el 28 de febrero.

En el impredecible panorama político nacional, Rick Santorum ha tomado la  delantera en las encuestas de Michigan, lo que sugiere que la ventaja que le supone a Romney que esa elección se lleve a cabo en el estado donde nació y se crió -además de haber sido gobernado por su padre; no existe. 

En el caso de Arizona, que significa la posibilidad de conquistar 29 delegados [30 en Michigan], el panorama se ve mucho mejor para Romney. En esa región, se concentra una población mormona que representa cerca de la décima parte del electorado republicano y es donde el ex gobernador de Massachusetts tiene mayor aceptación.

De hecho, un sondeo realizado por Rasmussen el 1 de febrero en Arizona, coloca a Romney a la cabeza en ese estado; Newt Gingrich aparece en el segundo lugar y Santorum en tercero. Sin embargo, hay que recordar que esta encuesta fue realizada una semana antes de la triple victoria de Santorum en Minnesota, Colorado y Missouri, la que le ganó un enorme impulso en todo el país.

En el contexto de la carrera republicana hacia la Casa Blanca, Santorum es lo que en este país se llama un perfecto “culture warrior [guerrero cultural -o en términos aplicables- un agresivo defensor de los valores esenciales de su partido]”. Lo es en su postura sobre los temas del matrimonio entre homosexuales, el financiamiento al aborto y la batalla iglesia-Estado sobre la anticoncepción; lo que ha logrado despertar la empatía del ala más conservadora del Partido Republicano, que le ha favorecido con su voto. Así se demostró con el citado triple triunfo obtenido hace apenas una semana, con lo que dejó atrás a Romney no sólo en las urnas de esos estados, sino también en casi todas las encuestas posteriores. 

Entre las encuestas que muestran un virtual empate, está una de CNN, publicada el martes. Los seguidores de Santorum se cuentan entre los más conservadores. Este grupo incluye a miembros de la clase obrera y son en su mayoría, hombres.

Precisamente, entre los republicanos hombres, Santorum mantiene una ventaja de 10 puntos, mientras que Romney le gana a éste entre las mujeres republicanas, con 9 puntos. De obtener la nominación, el enorme reto para Santorum sería convencer al voto femenino de que tendría voluntad para atender los asuntos que son importantes para ese segmento.

Pero la victoria para Romney en Arizona, sigue siendo probable. No lo parece así para  Santorum, quien vislumbra que su mensaje ultra conservador no funcionará muy bien en un estado poco tradicional y religioso.

Uno de los aspectos que podría lastimar a Romney en la elección de Arizona, es una estrategia discusiva por parte de Santorum, que explote la vulnerabilidad de un electorado que ha sido altamente lastimado por la crisis financiera e inmobiliaria, aduciendo los vínculos del ex gobernador de Massachusetts con el corporativismo y con Wall Street.   

Pero, en Arizona, el estado que inició la ola antiinmigrante en el país con la ley SB1070, ambos candidatos también tendrán que posicionar su discurso en materia de inmigración de una  manera mucho más directa. La oportunidad para hacerlo antes de esa elección primaria, será en el debate a celebrarse el 22 de febrero. 

Si lo hacen, no habrá ‘hilo negro’ a descubrir. Ambos tratarán de reafirmar sus posturas y  revalidar al electorado cautivo que busca eliminar cualquier forma de legalización para los millones de indocumentados en el país. A este punto, el electorado latino que defiende una reforma migratoria, queda fuera de la ecuación republicana.

En estos términos, Santorum ha enfocado su energía y recursos en Michigan, donde los indicadores predicen un triunfo, que sería importantísimo en su búsqueda de la nominación presidencial.

Mientras tanto, Romney continúa tratando de convencer a sus correligionarios de partido, que  es un verdadero conservador, pese a su historial de apoyo a medidas pro-aborto, métodos de anticoncepción, matrimonio homosexual, entre otros, que a su vez, le han dado la preferencia entre las mujeres de ese partido.

Así las cosas, Michigan será un parte aguas para Romney pues, se va quedando atrás en ese estado y la historia nos indica que, ningún aspirante presidencial que haya perdido su estado de origen en las elecciones primarias, ha llegado a ganar la nominación de su partido.

Esa será pues, una prueba de fuego más para Romney que para ningún otro aspirante.